How Barca Will Beat Bayern

 

By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN

@LonnPhillips

All of the odds are stacked against Messi and Setien's Barcelona as they come up against the best Bayern Munich team since 2013 (when they last lifted the UCL trophy), a juggernaut who's scored 31 goals during the UCL campaign and houses an intimidating bevy of talent on its roster.

Robert Lewandowski's 13 goals (1st in UCL) have been scintillating but it's his 4 assists (2nd) which has made Bayern even more unstoppable, combining beautifully with any number of Munich's attackers for 8 total assists in all competitions. 

Last time Barcelona played Lewandowski, the Bayern striker wore a face shield after a recent break of his nose, clearly affecting his play (including a close range miss) during the 2015 UCL semifinal...the Polish captain will have no such issues on Friday, looking egregiously good at this point.

Can Pique and Lenglet stop Robert Lewandowski from turning and firing in the box? I'm not so sure they can...can Barca's at times catastrophic defending shut down space for Gnabry, Muller, Coman, Kimmich, Perisic to operate? 

It'll be the toughest task this Barcelona core has faced in some time and the hardest job they'll ever take on with their revamped, post-Neymar squad.

But they can do it.....

Nobody is giving this Barca team a chance, saying they're too old, too fragile, too emotionally erratic, too reliant on Messi...a squad led by the wrong manager...

What if I were to tell you Quique Setien can change all of Barca's previous lukewarm fortunes into UCL-winning gold with the same squad of players currently at his disposal?

To beat Bayern Munich, Barcelona must do a few specific things with profound execution and skill, although to be able to pull this off, Setien must use the right team.

Many wonder why Barca has looked so scattershot this season, pre and post stoppage, and it's all due to the availability or proper usage of the squad....some matches, Barca looked rampant and for others, we were lost. The most damning aspect has been this team's inability to maintain the same intensity for 90 minutes and this always comes down to age and fitness, but also how the manager uses the squad.

Setien and Valverde can both be blamed for being substitute-shy as managers, refusing to change the game at crucial moments and letting results slip through Barca's fingers. Even against Napoli, Setien hadn't learned his lesson, neglecting to change the game all second half until the final 7 minutes, leaving a ragged Barca out there to fend for themselves, languishing without possession.

Once Setien deployed even a few subs, including Monchu, Barca suddenly gained over 9% possession in only a few minutes time and retook the possession battle, only narrowly keeping Napoli at bay (a team who hit the post twice).

Against Bayern, we won't be so lucky...

Setien must have a clear plan, and that should be youth....

Bayern win games due to relentless energy...they never stop. Thus, Barca must be able to fight fire with fire and use the correct personnel who can pass through and run beyond a feverish press 

Barca's problems passing from the back are almost always due to a single weak link screwing it all up, and to remedy this, Setien must use this XI:

GK TER STEGEN

RB SEMEDO

CB PIQUE

CB LENGLET

LB ALBA

CDM BUSQUETS

RCM VIDAL

LCM FRENKIE

RW / CAM / CF MESSI

CF GRIEZMANN

CF SUAREZ

this lineup will put the pressure on Thiago Alcantara and Joshua Kimmich, with Vidal and Frenkie pushing high on either side of Busquets, mucking the game up and gathering possession back for Barca. This way, we can control proceedings from a team who thrive on their foot ramming down the gas pedal.

As much as I wanted to throw Riqui Puig into this lineup, Arturo Vidal will be itching to play in this game against his former club and will provide such endless, priceless energy and pressing for the first 60 minutes.

Once we hit the 60th minute mark, the match still close, we must now throw on Sergi Roberto for Semedo and Ousmane Dembele for Griezmann or Suarez whichever is tiring, taking the game to Bayern at this juncture.

Ousmane Dembele hasn't played a match since he started and played well vs his former team Dortmund in December....that said, in only 4 league appearances vs Munich, Dembele shredded Bayern for 1 goal and 2 assists, also beating them in the DFB Pokal final with a starring role....he knows exactly what it takes to beat David Alaba, Boateng, Sule, Kimmich, even French teammates Hernandez and Pavard...he has their number out wide.

Can he produce the goods if fit enough to play?

We know he can, and since he's looked fantastic in recent training outings, Setien would be foolish not to use the winger during such a match.

Also, if Dembele cannot go or isn't an option, Ansu Fati must see playing time. Fati has what it takes to answer the call and it's up to Setien to understand when and where to throw him on.

This will be an intense game, chances will come either way, but if Barca want to get through, they must control the game through the usage of Frenkie, Busi and Vidal, then alter the game plan by the 60th minute with wingers out wide and Sergi Roberto's lung-busting heroics as well....

Messi will be Messi, but in order to be his best self, Barca's midfield must control the game, which is why Vidal's steel and brutality and Frenkie's world class abilities must be seen in full flight and direct combat against Kimmich, Thiago and Muller.

I see problems at center back for Bayern, too, a gaping hole between the left and center where Messi, Griezmann and Suarez can take advantage. Using Messi as a decoy, his penetration can drag Alaba out and leave significant lanes into the box for Antoine or Luis to fill. 

Sule or Boateng won't have a chance if Barca get their movement right and bring on wingers early.

I see an enthralling first half with Ter Stegen and Neuer drawn into a keeper's duel, each GK forced to make a few saves from brilliant play. Midfield combat will be constant, great tackles and scintillating passing either side of cynical, necessary fouls.

This is a match for Busquets to dominate, dictate and orchestrate...if Frenkie and Arturo can shield him long enough to pick Messi out frequently, we could be well on our way.

Look for Frenkie and Kimmich to battle, Thiago and Vidal to skirmish constantly and Messi will boss the ball anyway he can, aiming for Alba over the top.

The first goal will come from Bayern, in the 33rd Kimmich will shoot at goal and his shot will strike Lenglet, falling straight to Muller who dispatches to take the lead after Barca dominate possession early.

Then, Messi and Semedo combine on the right with the Portuguese right back crossing for Griezmann to lace into the goal, tying it at the 41st.

Right before half, Messi brings the ball down and slips passed Alaba, smashing a low cross towards Suarez. Suarez taps in a low finish off Neuer and in, Barca going into half with a shocking 2-1 lead.

Coming into the second, Bayern look rampant, Lewandowski hitting the post. But Barca maintain and fight to the hour mark. Bayern bring on Perisic and the Croatian immediately draws a foul from Semedo in the box, penalty.

Lewandowski comes up and buries the penalty, tying it at 2-2. 

Coming on to the 70th, Ousmane Dembele and Sergi Roberto come on for Griezmann and Vidal.

Dembele takes the game over, earning fouls and dribbling through players. He sets up Messi but he hits the post.

The game goes to extra time, THE FIRST TIME BARCA HAVE PLAYED AN EXTRA TIME MATCH IN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DURING THE ENTIRE MESSI ERA (2004-???).

But Setien can make himself a Barca Legend, no matter what the board decides, if he uses his 5 substitutions correctly.

And we predict he does:

Extra time, 2-2 UCL Quarterfinals...

Here is where the lights shine brightest: Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati come on for Suarez and Semedo and Barcelona take over. 

Dembele and Messi lead a counter attack from a corner before Dembele lays it off for Fati to throttle home 3-2. As Bayern send numbers forward desperately, Puig dominates in midfield and frustrates Bayern. Fati and Dembele work the wings and give Messi a breather, just enough for Dembele to grab his 2nd assist of the game, crossing the ball into the box for Messi to punch home...

Barca win 4-2 AET

1. We maintain the pressure and stop the Muller Lewandowski interplay (Lenglet comes up slightly, Pique drops centrally right as Busquets and whichever CM is closer pounce on the interplay with zonal pressure)

2. We control the ball by using the full width of the field

3. We use youth from the bench at the right times to bolster veterans

4. We take shots on goal frequently

5. We trust in Ousmane Dembele.

6. We will need saves from Ter Stegen

7. We will need Bayern to fluff one big chance

VISCA EL BARCA

PREDICTION: 4-2 BARCA AFTER EXTRA TIME

Griezmann, Suarez, Fati, Messi= goals

Semedo, Messi, Dembele x2 = assists

By LONN PHILLIPS SULLIVAN

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