Messi's Revenge? BARCA V UNITED

         When players of this caliber take the pitch in the Champions League, history always beckons. 
      This isn't the era of 0-0, 1-0 aggregate scores of the early 2000s, the UCL has become an erratic competition full of crazy goals, even crazier comebacks and the best players, managers, fans and clubs in the world.  
        We continue our Champions League previews, analysis and predictions: today we delve into the rematch of the 2009 and 2011 finals, Man United vs Barcelona:

ROTATION??

       Barcelona fans are feeling relieved after they buried the La Liga title once and for all, seizing upon an 11 point margin between them and Atletico after Luis Suarez finally broke through Jan Oblak's stubborn and clinical resistance with a powerfully driven and beautiful shot underneath the Slovenian keeper's outstretched left arm and kissing off of the post and in, breaking the 85 minute deadlock and in a way, giving Barcelona the La Liga crown.
         This is big for a myriad of reasons, especially considering Ernesto Valverde's obsession with playing Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Ivan Rakitic, Gerard Pique, Sergi Busquets and Jordi Alba nearly every single minute of every match.
          Now there is literally no excuse for a lack of rotation... there was hardly an excuse before this season-defining victory over Atletico, but there sure as hell isn't one now: Suarez has featured in a frightening 87% of matches this season and while Messi missed 5 matches due to his broken arm last Autumn, he hasn't missed a second since then, featuring in 91% of matches this season.

          Don't even get me started on the minutes and appearances from Pique, Rakitic, Alba and Busquets, each of those four being vital cogs in the Barca set up. Pique only just missed his first La Liga match vs Villareal this last week!
           So we know Ernesto Valverde is a fan of playing 30 year olds for 50+ matches a season, but we also know that doesn't pay dividends in this era of athletically dominant / transition football.
           You simply need a big squad and you need to use it well, scrambling and rotating in the matches of lesser priority. Valverde doesn't subscribe to this belief system, instead favoring a 'warrior mentality' that falls in line with the mind set of his players.
         Simply put: at this age, the core of Barca want to play together as much as possible while they still can....I get it...We want them to last as long as possible,  too.
           But this is where Valverde seems a bit out of his depth: as a manager, your #1 job is to get the best out of the players you have. In maximizing this potential and talent from the personnel at hand over the course of a 9 month season, with 4 different competitions and 55+ matches, you simply have to use a variety of players: we even see young players like Kevin De Bruyne falling under the pressure of playing 2, even 3 times per week.
         Sure they want to play every match, but it's Valverde's job as a manager to protect these players from themselves.
         It's simply not feasible and let's be honest: it's profoundly special that Messi, for all his talents and world-altering prowess, has survived playing nearly every match for 13 years, hardly ever being substituted and constantly being in the midst of the action.
          Under this non-rotation policy of Valverde's (especially in a season following a World Cup),  Messi and Suarez among others should've been hampered by the small injuries and the lack of rest they received over the course of this season thus far.
           Barcelona must consider themselves very lucky to have gone without any season-ruining injuries.
           But here we are and Barcelona have a clean slate heading into the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals, albeit most likely without  stud winger Ousmane Dembele (who may yet play a cameo role from the bench now that he's been medically cleared).

RENEWED CONFIDENCE 
          Still, Messi and co. come into this first leg with renewed confidence, continued dominance in La Liga, the Copa Del Rey and fresh from the 5-1 drubbing of Lyon in the 2nd leg of the last round, they'll surely feel right at home against the challenges Manchester United pose.
            This is however a new set of challenges that Barcelona must overcome, with United downing PSG in ridiculous, gift-wrapped fashion, though it must be said, credit must be given: they beat PSG and pulled their pants down in front of the world for all to see, without Pogba, without first string defenders and a completely ragged makeshift back line.

BARCA CURRENTLY 
            Can they pull this off against this Barcelona side?
            Maybe they could steal a result, but the Catalan giants are heading into this first leg with a pile-driving aura around them that has been their guide through any and all opposition, winning in a variety of ways, coming from behind in a litany of matches while overcoming plenty of adversity, and using the breadth and depth of the squad to the team's advantage.
        For every question asked, for every potential weak spot in the starting XI for Valverde, he has an answer in his squad. Whether he chooses the best answer all the time is debatable, but while I remain an open skeptic, I applaud Valverde when I feel he has succeeded such as he did with his positive substitutions against Villareal and his gamble with Dembele against Lyon is one roll of the fitness dice I did support.
             However, will the toll of all the minutes clocked, all of the matches played, the miles traveled for national teams, the World Cup before all of this....when will it all add up and strike one of the core Barcelona players down?                             It hasn't happened...somehow...magically...   Pique, Messi, Alba, Busquets, Suarez...they have all been so lucky to not have suffered horrible knee ligament tear injuries, or worse, but the gambling from here on out by Valverde, unless the season is on the line in the Champions League, must stop.
             That said, Barcelona look alive, even rampant at times, upping a level and going up a gear into full throttle mode when they feel the need, with Messi leading counter attacks and runners generously hustling their guts out for a chance at a goal from the special one, with these situations proving nearly impossible to defend when Ousmane Dembele is on the pitch.

STARTING UMTITI???
          Valverde has wisely rotated recently, more than he ever has as Barcelona manager, giving players needed breaks and testing Samuel Umtiti's fitness gradually. 
             Will he gamble and start Umtiti in a match like this at Old Trafford, against the fleetwood legs of Romelu Lukaku and Marcus Rashford?
            Even with the speedy coverage in behind by Jordi Alba, it's been a long season for him, too, with his legs showing signs recently of slowing as the matches have gone on, and the need for Alba to pace himself being at a premium when it comes to the attack. 
          Clement Lenglet would be the safer choice until Samuel Umtiti wins back the starting spot, although it wouldn't be a complete shock if Valverde started Umtiti alongside Pique.

LUKAKU AND THE COUNTER ATTACKING THREAT OF UNITED 
          This match, and this tie, seem odd to me.
          Barcelona should win this one handily, but if they're not careful in their  passing at the back, if they think they can get away with arrogant passing like Thilo Kherer did against United only a minute into the 2nd leg, Lukaku will punish Barcelona. 
          The oft-forgotten Romelu Lukaku will want to seize this moment, this time in the spotlight and he'll want to prove his worth to the world of football that has misplaced and dismissed the Belgian since the World Cup. 
         Barcelona better be careful against the pace of this counter attack, that's why starting Nelson Semedo at right back is the smarter choice.

SEMEDO OR ROBERTO??
             Semedo has the recovery speed to gain ground on opponents who've beaten him off of the dribble, or have picked off a loose pass from a teammate.
       The Portugal man is fantastic in his one on one defending against speedy wingers or counter attacks, often masking the age, or defensive mistakes of Gerard Pique throughout this season.
          The other option is Sergi Roberto a natural midfielder utilized at right back (I have to keep reminding people) yet he has been an attacking force throughout this campaign for Barcelona, no doubt about it and against top opposition (3 assists in 4 matches vs Real Madrid, 7 overall), but he's really a midfielder stationed at right back, rather than a full back by trade, which is fantastic in some aspects against certain opposition and Roberto's versatility can find him starting anywhere from right back, defensive midfielder, center midfielder, right forward, attacking mid and he's even found himself putting in a few shifts at left back this season. 
        But against higher tempo counter attacking teams, if you make one mistake at the back, or on the wings, even deep in midfield, you're completely exposing Pique, Ter Stegen and Umtiti or Lenglet at the back, with Alba usually caught miles up the pitch himself as well. 
        It's for these reasons that Semedo is the better match up against what could be Marcus Rashford at left forward, not only for his pace but for his defensive awareness and his lung-bursting runs up the right wing that could pin Luke Shaw and Rashford back deep in their own half, isolating them with his pace and ability to break play up and then redistribute the ball. 
            While not being incredibly dangerous in attack, the Portugal international has earned penalties and gradually improved his offensive production during 2019. 

MALCOLM IN THE MIDDLE 

           Barcelona are the away team...they should be bold and go for goals, try to win this tie now so they don't have to completely risk Dembele in this match. 
       He is medically cleared to play in the match, though shouldn't be risked in more than a cameo role, right? Surely with Malcolm firing, Valverde wouldn't risk Dembele in yet another match? 
          If Valverde rolled the dice again, it would be one roll too many and we could re-injure Dembele before he's had a chance to return.
           In keeping with the aggressive plan, Valverde really should start Malcolm for that reason especially, and it's not like Malcolm is a bad player:

the Brazilian has scored or assisted in 5 of his 7 starts, an impressive tally for a player unfairly ostracized and forced to the periphery of a massive squad, being used sparingly and wastefully.
           Yet Malcolm has come alive with 2 goals and an assist in his last 3 appearances and the Brazilian displays vast amounts of energy and is combining with Messi for goals...which will always guarantee your spot in the Barcelona XI.

IF POGBA FEELS UP TO IT
           United aren't even half the team they think they are, but they do have Paul Pogba who could rise to the occasion if he feels like it...that's the key: if he feels up to it.
             He may not be in the mood to run for miles and work for only a few moments of flair on the ball, but the still immature Pogba needs to learn that the harder he works, the greater the frequency in which he attempts to win the ball back, the more chances he'll be able to provide (and take) in attack...
        ...that's why Valverde, if he's wise, would instruct Ivan Rakitic to rush in on Pogba on his first touch in the match and plow into him, yellow card be damned. Then, every touch after that, press him in herds with help from Messi, Suarez and Malcolm coming in behind to close off every possible angle for Pogba to pass in an attacking sense.
          PSG frustrated Pogba to the core in the first leg of their round of 16 encounter, and Pogba was pathetically suspended and absent for the 2nd leg comeback. Surely Barcelona's midfield three of Busquets, Arthur and Rakitic can execute the same plan.

TACTICAL SUBTLETIES: ARTHUR / COUTINHO 

         I expect Barcelona to pass, pass, pass...use the ball as defense, use the ball as a shield against the counter attack and then use it to cut the teeth of United in a myriad of ways: Ter Stegen can send long balls down the pitch for Messi to come on to and flick on to Malcolm, Coutinho or Suarez as runners (this plot was performed brilliantly against Guardiola's Bayern Munich in the 2nd leg of the 2015 Champions League semifinals, with Messi heading the ball on to Rakitic and Neymar).
           They could use Arthur as an extra midfield runner, that is if his fitness can hold himself up to that task. If not, I'd rather use him as a passing metronome and take him off safely in the 65th minute without an injury.
           Arthur is so vital to what Barcelona will hope to accomplish in the coming month and a half and any absence from the Brazilian midfielder could spell catastrophe for their midfield. But hopefully Arthur is fit and firing, as we have seen in flashes recently, because this man is built for the bright lights and the biggest of moments.
          Coutinho, if he starts and plays (Valverde will most likely pick him) could respond to the Premier League opponent and environment, although Old Trafford is a ground Coutinho has scored only once at (Coutinho has only 1 goal in 9 total appearances vs United) and David De Gea is a goalkeeper he has only scored once against as well, although the goal was quite a beauty (the brilliant Europa League goal in 2016). 
         Can Coutinho bring back the ghosts of that Europa League night and score another breathtaking goal for Barcelona to advance? 
          Maybe Coutinho's problem is he's focusing too much on scoring goals, instead of playing within the team structure and supporting Messi and Suarez with chances, with the Brazilian contributing an embarrassing 1 assist in 2019, with the solitary assist coming back in January (none in the last 19 appearances).
          If Coutinho can rediscover his playmaking ability, Barcelona will have a chance for domination in these ties; his supporting role is needed more than ever in the potential absence of Ousmane Dembele.
           But the matches will be won in the midfield, where Barcelona will pass United to sleep and then cut them in the back with moves of a thousand daggers...Messi spinning tricks and Suarez pulling flicks and Coutinho, Malcolm, potentially Dembele and Arthur creating with panache and discovery against this rugged United squad.
          United stand no chance, maybe even losing big even if Barcelona were without Messi....
WILL MESSI GET THROUGH DE GEA??
          Messi hasn't scored in the quarterfinal round since 2015, and since that time, Barca have yet to get through this stage. He surely is out for revenge, although scoring a goal, let alone a few goals against David De Gea, is never going to be easy. 
        In fact, it's going to be a lot harder than the biggest Barca fans are thinking. There is a history here, though limited: when a teenaged De Gea was starting for Atletico in 2009/2010 he faced off against Messi in a classic La Liga encounter, Atletico winning 2-1 with De Gea making 4 saves on Messi. 
       Then the two faced off twice in the following season (2010/2011 before De Gea left for United) with Messi scoring 4 goals and sending in an assist for a Pique header in those matches, including scoring a hat trick.
       Are they two different players now?
       Yes, but still the same as well.
       That said, Messi has never scored at Old Trafford....but maybe it's purely a case of not playing there enough.
       Surely there's a chance to make new history.
        With Lionel Messi,  there's always a chance.
        

MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS:

United: PAUL POGBA
Barca: (non-Messi) ARTHUR

PREDICTIONS:
1st leg: 1-3 Barcelona
2nd leg: 2-0 Barcelona
 Barcelona advance 5-1 on aggregate 


Give us your predictions and lineups below !! 
Peace....love...and football