LYON AREN'T AFRAID OF BARCELONA...BUT IS VALVERDE AFRAID OF LYON?: I GOT DA BARCA-UCL FEAR

             LYON           VS        BARCA

THE CHAMELEON CLUB 

     It is apparent that Ernesto Valverde has made sure, above all else, that neither opposition nor fans can figure out who the Catalan club will field next.              
      He's constantly keeping opponents guessing, so that no matter how much you consistently prepare for Semedo, maybe Roberto is at right back instead, or you put in a game plan to stop Dembele, only to see his role minimized as Suarez and Messi come to the fore, or in midfield you go to stop Arthur while seeing Arturo Vidal's brilliant ball winning capabilities scattering your possession in midfield and his panache going forward cutting your midfield to pieces.....all of which you hadn't prepared for.
        That's what makes this Barca side so dangerous: this chameleon quality that can beat Real Madrid by blocking everything in their own box, or by bossing the ball and winning 5-1 without Messi, or 3-0 with Ousmane Dembele creating at will.
        Yet, it is also what makes them so vulnerable: not only in the lack of continuity in the team, but when Valverde finds himself fielding personnel (in midfield especially) who can't win the ball back quickly enough.
       This exposes the frailties of Gerard Pique and Samuel Umtiti  (only just back from a stop/start spell of 7 months out, with two 90 minute appearances and a first half refresher in the Catalan Supercopa to go on before this 2nd leg tie against his former club). It also exposes the age and lack of pace of Luis Suarez and (sometimes) Lionel Messi, when backed with 30+ year old midfielders in every slot.
      People would challenge that and say what about the days of Xavi and Iniesta? They were both 30+ years old?!
      Oh ho ho, well what about their ball-winning / metronome extraordinaire, the once younger Sergio Busquets at defensive mid behind them? Busquets made up for the lack of pace and defensive nous in the center of the park that were only tiny flaws in Xavi and Iniesta's profiles.
     ....and the outrageous passing made up for most of that...

THE BARCA / LYON MIDFIELD BATTLE

      Barcelona could very well field a much younger midfield three (and another winger in the potential absence of Ousmane Dembele) against Lyon if Valverde had the stones.  If he started Alena, Busquets and Arthur (in midfield) with Sergi Roberto at right forward (in the absence of Ousmane Dembele), Barca could dominate the match from minute one.
       We know Valverde won't do that, although the match-up in midfield is against a younger, less experienced, but extremely world class pair of midfielders in Houssem Aouar and Tanguay Ndombele, with the returning Nabil Fekir showing the attributes of a rough and tumble, hard tackling, high fouling center mid when dropping deeper from his usual #10 role behind the striker. Obviously, an energetic midfield is what is necessary for Barcelona to advance.
       Valverde's side simply cannot go into this match expecting to dominate that young core with a midfield three of Vidal, Busquets and Rakitic, even if the Croatian was rested most of the last match...that tiny amount of rest be damned.
      In this Vidal, Busquets, Rakitic scenario: Barca will be out-run, out-manned and playing side to side, back again and deeper into their own half (with that older, slower midfield in transition) before they attempt to break Lyon down and give the ball away, with only Messi, Suarez and Alba as runners to pick out; and they'll let Lyon break on them, something the Ligue 1 side are incredibly adept at (as Manchester City found out in two different matches, both home and away in this season's group stage, losing 2-1 at home and settling for a 2-2 draw in France).
      Not only that, but if we start a 30+ year old midfield, or say Arthur starts but Dembele isn't available and Coutinho is at LF, LCM clogging everything, we have a potential to be out-passed by Lyon's rabid midfield and front press, as they collected 48% possession (without Fekir) in the 1st leg.

IN TRANSIT 

      The match, like most Champions League, or international tournament contests, will be decided in moments of transition:
       What do Barca do when Lyon lose the ball after a threatening set piece, where the majority of their team is caught forward?           How quickly can they get it out of the fray?
       Can Lyon break on Barca (with pace) when the Catalan giants are camping and passing in the Lyon half with numbers committed?
       How fast can Barca's veterans win the ball back, and if they do, can they then feed the front line and still have the lungs to burst beyond and support Messi with options?

      Either way, our midfield has to help the attack: they have to go on those forward runs beyond their talisman. They must also take care of the ball to allow Alba to set up shop in the left corner of the Lyon box, with patient build-up play for stretches, instead of forcing Alba to constantly streak back and forth up the wing all game.
      If we ask that of Jordi Alba: to completely mark, press and race against Bertrand Traore, Aouar and Dubois...we will have issues. The left back has played far too many matches this season and he desperately needs some assistance from Coutinho, Arthur or whoever it may be on the left side: they've got to make those runs forward, and also track back to shoulder some of Alba's load on the left.

WITHOUT DEMBELE??

        A collapsed formation of Messi in the middle, Suarez up the middle too and either Dembele, Roberto or Malcolm on the right wing would greatly expose Jordi Alba against Bertrand Traore and Aouar.
      Valverde has to get these key details in the starting XI absolutely spot on. Lyon will look to counter and hit us hard, using their pace and versatility against us. We will have to fight fire with fire, which is why Ousmane Dembele's potential absence is a killer blow to Valverde's game plan.

      We will have to see if Roberto and Semedo can offer up that pace and vertical attack on the right, or if Valverde will opt (finally) to just start Malcolm...hell, the dood has barely played and when he's started, he's scored against both Real Madrid (in a 1-1 tie no less) and Inter Milan  (another 1-1 draw).
       As long as Barca can keep the left wing of Lyon (Depay and Mendy) pinned deep, Barca will have moments to breathe. And since that Mendy-Depay axis is so dangerous, we expect, no we feel that  Semedo has to start.
       It should be a fascinating tie to watch, with an early goal making this 2nd leg something to savor for any fan.

NABIL F*$&IN FEKIR

       If you're a Barcelona fan though, the score staying at 0-0 or even 1-0 (until the 70th minute or so) is far too precarious against a man like Nabil Fekir who can score in any possible way, shape or form and from anywhere on the pitch. In addition, he can turn provider, with his 0.9 assists per match in the Champions league this season bearing that out loud and clear.
       Fekir is clinical...if we can't make contact on a clearance in the box, or miss a header on a Lyon corner, the deliveries of Fekir and Depay can create a plethora of goals, with the two of them combining for 22 assists this season and over 170+ chances created.
      Ter Stegen saved Barca last match and I'm certain he'll be called upon at least a few times, although Pique, Umtiti, whoever is playing right back and Jordi Alba cannot just rely on this wunderkeeper to save everything.....to give credit where it's due, the Barca back four made some crucial blocks and interventions in the 1st leg, with Gerard Pique standing tall.
      Though Pique will now have his favorite partner, Samuel Umtiti back....probably not even 80% fit, though determined and willing to prove a point against his former club. Umtiti's presence, his speed, his penetrating, positive passing from deep and anticipatory attributes are all world class and definitely a step up from Clement Lenglet (as well as the Frenchman has played in Umtiti's absence).
       Valverde will need the type of performance from Umtiti that turns back the clock to his summer exploits at the World Cup for France.

DOES MESSI HAVE A SNAKE IN HIS BOOTS? AND IS VALVERDE THAT SNAKE?

       Another little detail we noticed that concerns us and it'll surprise you: Messi's shooting.
       The G.O.A.T's shooting hasn't been its spectacular best, with many shots going slightly wide or without the necessary power. I know Messi is operating on fumes, such is the way Valverde abuses his star man, but it's beginning to affect his once sterling finishing.
      This isn't even a criticism of Messi, this is literally about finishing at the right moment, in the most crucial of times and who am I to question Messi's response to the pressure in a moment like that?
       I never would.
       It's just something I've seen lately from the Argentine as he never gets a match off, especially when you consider he's been injured in the calf since a 2-2 match against Valencia where (who else) the Barca captain scored twice in a come from behind victory. He hasn't rested a match since then, and while he had a week off recently, that isn't sufficient rest for the G.O.A.T and I feel Valverde isn't taking care of his legend and savior from personal unemployment.
       In addition, Anthony Lopes had the match of his life in the 1st leg, making 6 or 7 brilliant saves on Messi, Dembele and others, diving, sprawling and cutting off our skilled, on the carpet cutback play, with more than a few dangerous crosses being dealt with by the parrying palms of Lopes.          Keeping a clean sheet against Barca in the 1st leg will do Lopes' confidence a world of good when he suits up on Wednesday, with Leo licking his chops at the prospect of putting a goal through Lopes.
        Messi will have (no doubt) taken the 1st leg shutout personally, with only goals being the cure for his frustration.

OVERVIEW OF THE CHAOS & PREDICTION 

       Lyon will show Barca no respect, offering hardly any time or space and they have no problem causing the stars of Barcelona bodily harm to get through:
       They are turned on by the Ajax take down of "mighty" Real Madrid, with players like Depay having witnessed his  Dutch teammates  pull it off.  No doubt he has been picking De Ligt and De Jong's brains for answers as to how you go about killing a football giant.
       But this is what Messi has been waiting for all campaign: this match.  
       Lionel will be ready to kill and always is poised to win, but will Valverde surround him with support? Or will the unnecessary miles Messi has clocked this season come back to haunt him, just like last year against Roma?
      Too often this diamond, this miracle of a man has been used and abused by managers, Guardiola absolutely included, with the price being heavier than the toll: costing Messi World Cups, Copa Americas' with Argentina and now (since 2015 and a couple years before that, too) Champions League titles....all sacrificed so we can watch him play every match...every minute...so the traveling Barca fans (from as far away as Japan and Australia) aren't disappointed.
       Just like we need to support and buoy Messi, we've got to shield Sergio Busquets in midfield and allow him to dictate the tempo, then get Arthur on the ball as much as humanly possible. This is the match we bought Arthur for and just as he conjured lightning in a bottle with Busquets against Tottenham, Madrid and Inter Milan, we need that type of play from the Brazilian.

       I'm going to predict a wild opening: Fekir assists Aouar in the 10th minute with a deflected strike, though Barca retain possession for long periods and have good chances. Just before half time, Messi is fouled on a surging run and takes a free kick, crashing it off of the bar and it falls to the waiting feet of Luis Suarez who taps it in.
      In the second half, Barca survive waves of intense Lyon pressure and catch the French club on the counter themselves, Messi and Suarez  (if Dembele is fit I definitely include him here assisting) punishing them with the 2nd Barca goal.
     It isn't before long that Lyon hit the post themselves, but on the resulting fast break, Alba hits Messi with a perfect cross and Messi scores a volley, putting Barca through 3-1 on aggregate.

XI:
GK Ter Stegen
RB Semedo
CB Pique
CB Umtiti
LB Alba
CDM Busquets
RCM Rakitic
LCM Arthur
RF Messi,
LF Dembele
CF Suarez

If Dembele can't play:
GK Ter Stegen
RB Semedo
CB Pique
CB Umtiti
LB Alba
CDM Busquets
RCM Rakitic
LCM Arthur
LF Coutinho
RF Messi
CF Suarez