CHIEFS PATRIOTS PREVIEW AND PREDICTION: THE DEATH OF THE PATRIOTS? THE RISE OF PAT MAHOMES? BON JOVI TO COACH PATS NEXT SEASON, SAYS KRAFT

      

       Everyone wants to be the one to call the great Patriots  collapse..the final nail in the coffin of Belichick/Brady. It's such a long-standing and successful duo, the most in NFL or post-Auerbach American sports history. Being the first to call the dethroning of Belichick/Brady and New England would be akin to the sports version of finding out who killed the Lindbergh baby.
     We all know Father Time will come calling and just like all good or bad things, Brady and Belichick will end: the duo will die in a football sense. Still, we've been wrong more times than I can count about the Premature Death of the New England Patriots with Brady under center and Belichick with the headphones on.
     Everyone from Colin Cowherd to Dan Patrick to your Dad, or your Patriots hating pizza guy......even myself....we've all said the two most final words in the English language regarding the ceiling of sports teams: "they're done".

     And as this sociopathic or completists' wet dream where Brady and Belichick battle Planet Earth and Father Time for natural supremacy, the Patriots teams seem to get progressively worse by the year. Remember the pregame before Super Bowl LI vs the Falcons? It was how this was the final year...the final dance. Then, clear into the beginning of the 4th quarter of that miracle comeback victory, The Patriots: The Dynasty, The legacy...it was tarnished ....it was done.
      Yet it wasn't.
       Even with Julio Jones making circus catches, the Patriots always do one better and Edelman made us all jump out of our brains watching his "better than Tyree's" catch in that crazy, insane Super Bowl.
       They do this all the time.
       The Dynasty began and was forged through the fires of inclement weather games, the Tuck Rule that started it all, the pathway to the playoffs usually concerns trips to Buffalo and the Jets; it was created when you thought they had no fucking chance: 2001 Super Bowl vs the Greatest Show On Turf, the 2008 season without Tom Brady where they won 10 games and criminally missed the playoffs with Matt Cassell at quarterback after Brady tore his ACL, in Week 1, vs these same Kansas City Chiefs in the same stadium; the last 2 minutes of Super Bowl XLIX Vs Seattle; the second half vs the Falcons; even when duking it out in a shootout on the plantation with the Eagles and Nick Foles...... this Dynasty was established in these moments.
      It's almost as if the Patriots only fail to spite us....
      We spend a decade picking against them, waiting for the Dynasty to crack, then start backtracking and betting on them thanks to these Miracle Super Bowls that really do provide the entertainment of a lifetime, whether you hate these Patriots or not, one thing is destined: if they're in the Big Game, it's always going to be one of the best Super Bowls ever.
        Yet Bill Belichick doesn't wanna talk about all of that shit.
        And he shouldn't be distracted with legacies, dynasties and futures...he has a prodigy to stop in the Chiefs wunderkind Pat Mahomes.

Mahomes thrives on the energy at Arrowhead, something this Chiefs team will need in abundance if they are to battle the mystique of the Patriots.

        Surely he's done his film study and it's definitely told him one thing: this guy, Mahomeboy will do anything to win, including completing any throw he has to, or (as we saw in the diving  touchdown run that sealed the Colts fate last Saturday) Mahomes is completely fine putting his body on the line.
       But before the typical hyperbole comes flying in about The Curse of Andy Reid and the youth and inexperience of Patrick Mahomes, or the lack of Kareem Hunt (they proved in a large way, to me personally, that the Chiefs can overcome that loss with the breakout effort by absolute pregame unknown and in fact, only just recently signed running back  Damien Williams), the Chiefs proved against the Colts' highly rated defense, that they can count on many different weapons and drive the football down the field, score in bursts, or come out firing and then clock your defense out of the game with the running attack.
        If the regular season is to be counted and considered, The Patriots allowed 40+ points to the Chiefs in Foxboro, a stat so stunning that even in defeat, The Premature Death of the Patriots was bandied about in the media like cocaine and Chick-Fil-A on the Clemson campus.
      The regular season shootout meeting in  Foxboro shouldn't matter whatsoever, yet there are obvious factors that are glaring when one looks back at that game:

CAN THE PATRIOTS STOP TYREEK HILL???
      One would assume the biggest detail Belichick is going over with his defense is receiver and run threat Tyreek Hill and The end around / reverse / option plays in the backfield in lieu of a bunch of high octane passing  (due to the predicted -9 degree weather at Arrowhead  on Sunday evening. But I doubt it'll get too much colder than 15).
      Hill had 3 touchdowns in that regular season meeting in Foxboro and was the player of the game, devastating  the Patriots front, their edge and the secondary.
     That is why Hill is so good: he threatens the entire field.
     With the Patriots defensive scheme favoring cornerback Stephon Gilmore  (who has been a revelation for the Patriots underrated secondary) on Sammy Watkins and reportedly J.C Jackson in combination with safety Devin McCourty will be doubled on Tyreek Hill.
      Belichick obviously trusts J.C Jackson, the undrafted rookie corner who has been one of the few Patriots defenders to have a truly solid season. Still, is it the same type of trust he instilled in Eric Rowe when he replaced Malcolm Butler in last year's Super Bowl loss , as a rookie, for absolutely zero reason and proceesed to get burnt and turnt by Alshon Jeffrey? Is it the same blind trust Belichick puts in the guys who do it his way?
      As long as the Patriots defense contains the edge, minimizes  the damage from the yards  Hill will get, then they can put the pressure on Mahomes just a little bit more to deliver big plays and move the chains.
      But the dood can....and if you give him enough rope to hang himself, he turns it into a McGyver device capable of more mass destruction than marrying a Kardashian.
      The spine of the Patriots defense must hold firm or Watkins and Hill, using each other as a decoy, can exploit the second level of New England's lack of consistency and speed.
       Yet the Patriots defense has proven they're capable of being coached up by Bill enough to blow up complex running schemes and disrupt receivers off of the line, something that will be key: the more time Mahomes hangs on to the ball, the easier it will be for Hightower, Trey Flowers, Adrian Clayborn and Deatrich Wise Jr. to get to Patrick Mahomes.

CAN THE CHIEFS GET TO BRADY?
       The Chiefs front batted down 8 passes thrown by Andrew Luck in the second round matchup vs the Colts, completely killing drives before they started and repeatedly frustrating and causing disillusion amongst Indianapolis, as a team....
       What the much maligned and rightfully criticized Chiefs defense achieved against the 4th  highest scoring  team in the NFL last week was truly impressive: linebacker and edge rusher Justin Houston and D-lineman Chris Jones were dynamic: with 5 batted passes, 2 sacks and a forced fumble between them, they absolutely ate the Colts offensive line apart.

       However: this is still a defense that allowed 7 teams to score 28+ points on them this season and 4 teams to score 35 or more....with this Patriots team being one of them. They did improve at times across the season, holding 5 teams  below 17 points, as well.
       It is extremely important for the Patriots offensive line to (obviously) protect Brady (which they have: guard Shaq Mason, longtime veteran Sebastian Vollmer and center David Andrews etc only let Brady get sacked 21 times all season)  but in addition to just keeping Brady upright, it's about keeping those quick screens to James White and Julian Edelman clean from the hands of defensive linemen, blitzing linebackers and crawling to the line safeties. Also...Andrew Luck was only sacked 18 times all season before he ran into the KC Freight Train last week.
      It just shows regular season success and failure can only seldom be a true indicator in a sport like the NFL, The NBA or MLB once the playoffs begin.
       Last week, LA attempted something the Chiefs should be wary to attempt: The Chargers defense were up to the line to stop Brady....they went toe to toe against them, but transparently.
      Though, they couldn't do a thing about James White, as the running back caught 15 passes for just under 100 yards and absolutely destroyed and debilitated the Chargers front. The Chargers defense let Brady dictate by having extremely transparent defensive schemes and using minimal blitzing, which on Tom Brady and with a speedy defense and solid front line, Is insane.
        It became what it looked like: The Chargers defense sitting back and letting offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels dial up whatever he felt like and the offensive line ran riot.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

       I don't think we'll see a repeat of James White going untouched for one first down and big play after another. The Chiefs defense is fast and that can make up for a myriad of deficiencies  (which this Kansas City defense does have).
     What I see is the undervalued, forgotten Tom Brady patronage of Rob Gronkowski to finally rear its ugly, whiskey-swilling and shaved Frat boy head. This game is tailor-made for Gronk to have a big day, with early passes to James White and the yards after catch from those plays securing enough space for the out of sorts tight end to find gaps in the middle of the field, much like Mahomes will exploit to his own tight end, Travis Kelce.
     Both tight ends should have big days, whether it's a reported "arctic blast" of -9 degrees,  or it's still under 20, the short passing game will obviously decide who wins this game, with yards after catch being the biggest indicator.
     Kansas City is second in the league in YAC, with the Pats not far behind in 5th place, proving my point exactly. Both defenses have allowed nearly 400 yards a game for the opposition this season, with the Chiefs being 31st out of 32 teams in yards allowed per game.
      KC did remedy this in the last game, only allowing Andrew Luck and co. 266 total yards. However, they still let the horrific Colts running game average 6.2 yards on the ground on only 14 carries, a true statistical anomaly that may point to the relaxed mentality of their defense when playing with a lead (The Colts had 10 of their 14 first downs when the game was well and truly over).
       Yards after catch will be a master factor in determining the victor of this AFC Championship Game.
        YAC means 3rd and 2 instead of 3rd and 12....it provides big plays and usually, points. Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Kelce and Damien Williams from the Chiefs all have the pedigree to eliminate tough 3rd and long situations for their young, 2nd year (rookie as a starter) quarterback and that will be the biggest thing they can do for his confidence.
        Meanwhile the Patriots just need to keep it bland, force the speedy Hill, both Williams' and Watkins to stay in front of them at all times and no matter what: do not allow Mahomes to throw deep over McCourty. If the Chiefs score even 10 points from play action, deep long ball passing, They will win this game.
       I see the Pats playing tough, Gronk staying hungry and physical while imposing himself upon the Chiefs linebacking crew. I feel Mahomes will fire darts and command the offense to a quick 10 point lead, with Brady and the Pats struggling to keep the pace until the 2nd quarter, when Mahomes fumbles a snap and Kyle Van Noy, the former BYU linebacker, will recover the ball: setting up a much needed Patriots touchdown.

Chris Hogan (right) should be an X factor for the AFC title game

       Chris Hogan will have a big day; Jordan Matthews and Phillip Dorsett all will have contributions to be made in the Pats passing game. However, The buck stops with whether Rob Gronkowski can move the chains through the air for New England or whether it'll have to be through the ground with Sony Michel. Michel, White, Gillislee and Develin should be used constantly, as we all know the best way to pass is by running the ball.
       But.... it can't just be James White....it won't just be Mike Gillislee or James Develin out of the backfield: the Chiefs will be keying on the screen game and have the speed, the versatility and the makeup to  stuff it at home and in potentially horrible weather.
      Gronkowski will have to make a number of big time plays to restore Brady and Belichick's quest to avenge their Super Bowl loss.

           All this talk of The Curse of Andy Reid has me feeling a bit odd: on one hand, his internal clock is usually off when it comes to late game situations (his Super Bowl loss vs the Patriots when he was coaching the Eagles with Donovan McNabb, T.O or trying to fend off Andrew Luck's miracle comeback in the Wild Card a few years ago). 
      However, we've all forgotten the facts: the fact is, Andy Reid knows how to score points on the Patriots: He coached "conservative" Alex Smith into putting up 42 points on the Patriots in the opener of last season. They put up another 40+ points on the Pats this year, too. He's been a thorn in the side of Belichick for quite some time, he's just never had the luck to get one over on the GOAT.
       Sunday is his biggest chance.
And, as much as I was taught a lesson in betting against Tom Brady with last week's destruction of my Super Bowl pick, The LA Chargers......

.......  this isn't the Chargers.
      What made Phillip Rivers embattled last week wasn't the significant speed of the Pats front: it was his own lack of movement and mobility in the pocket  to extend the play.
      Mahomes is mobile, he is accurate and he makes the right decisions at the right time; Coupled with a fierce home crowd who are hungry for their first Super Bowl since Neil Armstrong landed on the moon, Andy Reid's smart coaching and relaxed, yet focused "family" vibe and the triple threat of Mahomes / both Williams' out of the back field, Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill's home-run ability and the safety net of Travis Kelce, plus the inconsistency of Belichick's defense, I've got the Chiefs pulling off a stunning, last minute victory:

        Brady will have too much time and the ball, with 1:28, 2 timeouts and will be on the Chiefs 31 yard line, down 33-31. Linebacker Justin Houston will create havoc in the pocket, flushing Brady wide; the golden boy's lack of mobility will come back to haunt him as he is nearly sacked, driven to the sidelines and then sent into the ground as his pass misses its target and KC takes over on downs and runs out the clock.
       Beating the Patriots isn't about complete X's and O's, stats, the X factors and the tangible: it's usually psychological. It's about getting over mental intimidation and fatigue to execute. The Chiefs aren't just trying to beat the Patriots, they're attempting to beat the mystique of the Patriots. That mystique carries a lot of weight....will the heaviness break the backs and shoulders of the team carrying the "dynasty" tag? Or will Kansas City be just an origami turtle running into an oven?
       We think the mystique isn't over, but the Patriots season will definitely be after Sunday.

PREDICTION:
Chiefs 33 Pats 31

tell us what you think about this intense, highly anticipated and potentially historic AFC title match. What's extremely interesting though, is how this blog has been attacked for being successful by certain corporate social media interests and empires. 
Just this tiny blog.
That's how far internet censorship goes nowadays.
Like and subscribe so that we don't have to put as many links around, it seems the internet is trying to censor us off of the web. 
Pretty crazy.
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The men in my family @ Fed Ex Field, Landover Maryland to see  the Redskins beat the Vikings on November 13, 2016. (All from left) Oldest brother Jess , Dad (In the Thiesmann #7), Older Brother Eric and myself in a Sean Taylor jersey that Jess had just got me.