BARCA V LYON: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE MADNESS

   

  Barcelona come into this match with high expectations, Messi nursing a bad calf, Suarez being in and out of form and manager Ernesto Valverde's decision making showing a lack of long term thought. They've also been playing poorly, scoring 1 goal in their last two matches and surrendering 2 goal leads in 3 of their last 6 matches.

         Although Messi and co eventually would turn the deficits around and come from behind in all 3 of those matches (Levante, Sevilla and Valencia), the pressure on Messi's shoulders to do it all has hit a fever pitch.

         Luis Suarez can still light it up....every other match (Valverde's lack of rotation for Suarez has cost us) though like much of the veteran core of this Barcelona side (Messi , Pique, Alba, Busquets) he has looked tired.

         Yes... I know that may sound crazy when you look at the stats and fantastic performances we've seen from our star men, yet we haven't seen a consistent team performance from Barcelona, excepting a few matches  (Madrid without Messi, PSV first leg in group stage, Sevilla in Copa Del Rey 2nd leg). 

          Valverde is a great manager for

keeping things calm and grinding out results, but this Barca side is screaming for aggressive leadership.
      This Barca squad is decked, loaded and fizzling to the brim with talent: Lenglet the replacement for Umtiti, Nelson Semedo (who's been improving rapidly), Ousmane Dembele returning from a spell out injured after he notched 12 goals and 5 assists and the out of confidence but still world class Coutinho.

           They have more than enough to compliment and empower Lionel Messi; the only problem is: Valverde doesn't help his star man enough.

          He should be providing Messi with the speed, defensive cover and panache going forward that a right wing axis of Dembele, Sergi Roberto ( in place of the slow and bloated Ivan Rakitic) in midfield and Semedo at right back. If this set up were to be utilized,  Barcelona would be able to go to town on opponents.

          To illustrate: Messi can't cut inside with any peace of mind when Sergi Roberto is at right back cutting inside himself. Lionel also can't generate enough space in the middle of the pitch when one of our interior midfielders is acting as if he is a second holding mid, as we've seen time and time again with Rakitic this season. 

         Rakitic is world class on and off the ball, but truthfully the Croatian has played far too much futbol to stay 100% fit and firing, especially going forward at this point. And, since Barca are without the Brazilian Arthur in midfield for the 1st leg, we simply need an energetic pulse in the center of the park in his absence. 

         Most likely Valverde would go with a midfield three of Busquets, Vidal and Rakitic, but against the high octane, in your face and classy midfield that Lyon possess, these three 30+ year old midfielders aren't going to get the job done.

         In fact: if Valverde goes with that 30+ year old midfield three, Barca will lose the first leg to Lyon. 

         We figure Rakitic or Vidal will make the cut, most likely Ivan (since his contract specifies he plays every match he's available). But who else joins them? Will we get energy, fight and penetration from Coutinho? 

         I doubt it the way he's playing and I would be almost too afraid to throw his frail, listless nature (as of late) into a midfield against Houssem Aouar and Tanguay Ndombele. 

         The match up against Lyon, whatever you say or think about him, calls for Sergi Roberto in midfield. He has the guile, the temperament and the ability on the ball to make Aouar and Ndombele chase. Roberto also has a strong dribbling ability from deep, something we won't have with a midfield three of either BVR or BR/VC . 

         Roberto is the key.

         Not only would he strengthen the area of the pitch where this match will be won or lost, he would also be in constant combination with Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez. Roberto has assisted more goals to Suarez and Messi this season than Coutinho and has recently scored from a Messi assist, and against Valladolid he was set up again by Messi only to barely miss the mark.

          This tie is all about space.

         Lyon will try to create room for Nabil Fekir by interchanging up top, giving their talisman (and an overwhelmingly underrated player all around) space to exploit with runners in behind. Although Fekir will be suspended for the first leg, a big boost for Barca.
      Fekir is a chameleon who is active throughout: he comes deep from center forward and drags defenders clear to the wings where he combines with Dutch winger Memphis Depay, joint leading assists leader in the Champions League thus far. Fekir is dangerous for any opponent: not only has he scored nearly a goal per match this season, he's second on the UCL assists table with 3 assists, as well.
          So without Fekir on the pitch for the first leg, Lyon will look to Moussa Dembele to press from the front and score goals. Dembele isn't the best presser and this is something that the Barca back line can enjoy in this 1st leg sans  Fekir. 

         And with physical, hulking Bertrand Traore on the right wing for Lyon, Jordi Alba will have his work cut out for him. 

         Traore is a shoot-first winger who also operates in the same areas as Depay, just on the opposite wing, making bizarre runs and clearing room for right back Kenny Tete or Leo Dubois to take up. 

          Bertrand Traore is an inconsistent player for Lyon, but is extremely capable of world class moments. His massive presence and stature on the right wing may pin Jordi Alba deep into his own half for periods of the match.

          This is where Roberto's nonstop engine in midfield is far more valuable in this game than Rakitic, Vidal or Coutinho: the first two being too slow to cover and Coutinho usually displaying a complete lack of interest in tracking back.

         Much has been made about the potential transfers of Lyon partners in crime Tanguay Ndombele and Houssem Aouar to City or even Catalonia, such is their abundant quality on and off the ball. Lyon will try as much as they can to retain possession but more importantly, they'll try and hunt and harass our back line into mistakes early. 

          Samuel Umtiti's return from a long injury layoff is imminent, but this first leg against his former side may be too early. Let's not kid ourselves: it is too early. Instead, fellow Frenchman Clement Lenglet will be next to Gerard Pique in the center of the Barcelona defense and should be worried about the interchanging powers of Fekir, Depay and Traore or the midfield runs from Auour and Ndombele. 

          The back line will be under seige for Barcelona, which is precisely why Nelson Semedo must start at right back and Roberto in midfield: Semedo has the speed and agility to recover from mistakes far up the pitch and complete hair-raising last man tackles, completely shielding and masking any deficiencies Gerard Pique still has in his game.

          Barcelona will look to possess the ball in the midfield portion of the park, measured and calculated possession and then quickly breaking for an attack. 

       We cannot go gung ho against this Lyon team, on the road. Fekir, Ndombele, Traore and Houssem Aouar have absolutely no issues or problems with fouling our defenders on the ball and getting yellow cards in the name of pressing us. Fekir especially is a dragon in the front press, akin to Luis Suarez in his energetic rampage against back lines the world over.

          To beat this Lyon team, We must use their own issues against them: Lyon's center back pair of Marcal or Jason Denayer and Marcelo are all incredibly suspect, with only left back Ferland Mendy being a truly good defender. There are holes all over the back line of Lyon that Barca must exploit.

           This is a perfect match for Ousmane Dembele to announce his second coming, hopefully catching up where he left off with another big goal or assist against the French side. Messi and Dembele looked fascinating together against Valladolid, and while the final finish wasn't there, the final ball from Dembele to Messi was on 3 occasions, with Messi barely missing wide on one of the shot attempts.

           There are holes Barcelona must plug up with youth and energy to combat the drive and speed of this hungry Lyon midfield: that is why Sergi Roberto must play in midfield against Lyon and Semedo must play at right back. 

            One of the obvious threats Lyon pose is from set pieces. From the right foot of Memphis Depay, Lyon have scored 7 goals from set pieces this season and constantly troubled Manchester City earlier in the campaign. This is a situation Barcelona could find themselves under fire, with some of the most regrettable goals the Catalans have given up (this campaign) coming from set pieces. 

          Against City, Lyon were vicious in the tackle, fast in the pass and quick on the counter, all while stealing away bits and pieces of City's possession throughout the match, slowly suffocating Guardiola's men in both legs, all while substitute Maxwell Cornet scored 3 goals across both matches.

          Lyon will try and replicate those performances and hopefully Valverde and his staff have studied the matches against City. That is the plan and the only way Lyon, across two legs, can usurp Barcelona: mistakes at the back, quick and early goals and suffocating our front line with counter attacks that drag the state of play 80-90 yards deeper, thus giving Lyon time to also get numbers back in transition. 

           This tie comes down to Ernesto Valverde: will he choose to take care of Messi's calf in between the first and second leg, or is he going to force Messi to play every match as the season goes on? 

     Will he start Rakitic and Vidal over Roberto and Coutinho or any other more youthful midfield options? 

      Could we instead actually see Carles Alena in midfield? 

       Will he throw Roberto on at right back and slow the pace of our side down in defense and in attack? 

       Will Traore keep Jordi Alba pinned deep in his own half, unable to feed Messi and Suarez? 

       Will Lenglet and Pique make crucial errors and will Nabil Fekir be there to pounce?

          We wonder.....

         But we feel Barca will stay professional, regardless of the lineup or formation and will grind it out and survive against Lyon. Now Valverde can accept a grinding result, but we cannot accept a grinding performance. 

        If we use the aging midfield, we will lose.

We should go with:
Ter Stegen
Semedo
Pique
Lenglet
Alba
Busquets
Roberto right midfield center
Alena left midfield center
Dembele on the left
Suarez up the middle
Messi on the right 

PREDICTION:

1st leg: 2-2

2nd leg: 3-1 Barca advance 5-3 on aggregate